Hurricane Ian 1100 Update

By Tessa Andres | September 28, 2022

Please see latest NHC updates from 1100 below. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move onshore within the Hurricane warning area in a few hours, move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday.

Ian is a category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida as a catastrophic Hurricane. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Ian could be near Hurricane strength when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday.

//signed//
Robert Nadeau
Director of External Affairs/Communications Office

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE...
...IAN WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOON...
At 11am EDT, Hurricane Ian was located 45 miles west-northwest of Naples Florida with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (category 4) and a minimum central pressure of 937 mb.

Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move onshore within the Hurricane warning area in a few hours, move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday.

Storm Surge Warning
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River

Storm Surge Watch
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big Pine Key
* Florida Bay

Hurricane Warning
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line

Tropical Storm Warning
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Little River Inlet
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay

Hurricane Watch
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee

Storm Surge - Heights above ground
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor - 12-18 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood - 6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee - 8-12 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable - 5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay - 4-6 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River - 3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the Dry Tortugas - 3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River including St.
* Johns River - 3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington - 2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge - 2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key - 2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line - 1-3 ft
* North of South Santee River to Surf City NC - 1-3 ft

Wind
Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian moves onshore. Hurricane conditions will begin along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area shortly, with tropical storm conditions ongoing.

Rainfall
Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall:
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches.

Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Charleston, SC
29%

Savannah, GA
27%

Jacksonville, FL
46%

The Villages, FL
92%

Orlando, FL
97%

W Palm Beach, FL
78%

Marathon, FL
99%

Naples, FL
99%

Ft Myers, FL
99%

Tampa, FL
99%

Cedar Key, FL
68%

Hurricane Wind Probabilities
Daytona Beach, FL
25%