Hurricane Ian 11AM Update

Colleagues, please see the afternoon update from the NHC on Hurricane Ian. Of note, Ian is moving toward the north near 10 mph, and this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in a couple of hours, pass west of the Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Ian is a category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected later today through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major Hurricane.

As a reminder the NHC provides a live stream broadcast via its YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter sites at approximately 11:15 a.m. EDT each day.

//signed//
Robert Nadeau
Director of External Affairs/Communications Office

...POWERFUL HURRICANE IAN EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA, GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
At 11am EDT, Hurricane Ian was located 305 miles south-southwest of Sarasota Florida with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and a minimum central pressure of 963 mb.

Ian is moving toward the north near 10 mph, and this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in a couple of hours, pass west of the Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Ian is a category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected later today through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major Hurricane.

Storm Surge Warning
* Suwanee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Marineland to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

Storm Surge Watch
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Suwanee River
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River
* South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line

Hurricane Warning
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

Tropical Storm Warning
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* Flamingo to Bonita Beach
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys
* Boca Raton to Altamaha Sound
* Lake Okeechobee

Hurricane Watch
* North of Anclote River to Suwannee River
* South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee

Tropical Storm Watch
* North of Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River
* South of Boca Raton to east of Flamingo
* Upper Florida Keys
* Florida Bay

Storm Surge - Heights above ground
* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor - 8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee - 5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay - 5-8 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River - 4-6 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound - 4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable - 4-6 ft
* Dry Tortugas - 3-5 ft
* Marineland to Mouth of the St. Mary's River, including St. Johns River - 3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River - 3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington - 2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River - 2-4 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Marineland - 2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge - 2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River - 2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line - 1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Aucilla River - 1-3

Rainfall
Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday night:
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches
* Central West Florida: 12 to 16 inches, with local maxima up to 24 inches
* Northeast Florida and the remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula: 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts up to 12 inches.

Hurricane Wind Probabilities
The Villages, FL
20%

Orlando, FL
27%

Naples, FL
32%

Ft Myers, FL
39%

Tampa, FL
44%

Cedar Key, FL
16%

Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Charleston, SC
49%

Savannah, GA
54%

Jacksonville, FL
68%

Orlando, FL
89%

W Palm Beach, FL
71%

Miami, FL
52%

Key West, FL
93%

Naples, FL
98%

Ft Myers, FL
97%

Tampa, FL
96%

Cedar Key, FL
75%

Tallahassee, FL
31%