Hurricane Ian 5AM Update
Hurricane Ian 5Am Update
Please see the morning NHC update for Hurricane Ian (Cat 3 as of 5 AM). of note, Ian is moving toward the north near 12 mph, and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, pass west of the Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Ian is a category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected later this morning after Ian emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida has a major Hurricane.
As an FYI the NHC provides a live stream broadcast via its YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter sites at approximately 11:15 a.m. EDT each day.
//signed//
Robert Nadeau
Director of External Affairs/Communications Office
...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IAN MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA...
At 5am EDT, Hurricane Ian was located near the City of Pinar Del Rio, Cuba with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph and a minimum central pressure of 952 mb.
Ian is moving toward the north near 12 mph, and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, pass west of the Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Ian is a category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected later this morning after Ian emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida has a major Hurricane.
Storm Surge Warning
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
Storm Surge Watch
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River
Hurricane Warning
* Bonita Beach to the Anclote River including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
Tropical Storm Warning
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Bonita Beach
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* Volusia/Brevard County Line south to Jupiter Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
Hurricane Watch
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River
Tropical Storm Watch
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Altamaha Sound to Volusia/Brevard County line
* Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
Storm Surge - Heights above ground
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa Bay - 5-10 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River - 5-8 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL - 5-8 ft
* Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor - 4-7 ft
* Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL - 3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including
* St. Johns River - 2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay - 2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River - 2-4 ft
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas - 2-4 ft
* Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River - 1-3 ft
Rainfall
Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday night:
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches
* Central West Florida: 12 to 16 inches, with local maxima up to 24 inches
* Northeast Florida and the remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula: 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts up to 12 inches.
Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding are expected mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina, with significant, prolonged river flooding expected across central to northern Florida. Flash and urban flooding are also expected with rainfall across southern Florida through mid week.
Tornadoes
Tornadoes are possible today through Wednesday across the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida Peninsula.
Hurricane Wind Probabilities
The Villages, FL
22%
Orlando, FL
20%
Naples, FL
21%
Ft Myers, FL
25%
Tampa, FL
49%
Cedar Key, FL
25%
Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Charleston, SC
39%
Savannah, GA
44%
Jacksonville, FL
65%
Orlando, FL
82%
W Palm Beach, FL
59%
Miami, FL
39%
Key West, FL
79%
Naples, FL
92%
Ft Myers, FL
89%
Tampa, FL
96%
Tallahassee, FL
37%
Panama City, FL
29%
